Two polls released 24 hours apart give two different pictures of the nine questions on the Massachusetts ballot. The UMass Amherst/WCVB poll, released October 19, found eight of the nine questions ahead, most by wide margins. The Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll, released October 20, found three of them, Questions 3, 5 and 7, effectively tied. Both polls agree that Question 8, the repeal of recreational marijuana sales, is losing badly, and that voters want to keep the 2024 gun law in Question 9.
We read both polls’ published toplines rather than relying on news summaries. Here is what each found, why they differ, and the constitutional rule that decides close questions, which counts voters who skip a question.
The two polls side by side
Suffolk figures are from its marginals for 500 likely voters, interviewed October 14 to 18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points. UMass figures are from its toplines for 800 registered voters, surveyed October 5 to 12, with a margin of error of 4.2 points; the UMass totals combine “definitely” and “probably” answers.
| Question | Suffolk/Globe yes | Suffolk/Globe no | Suffolk undecided | UMass/WCVB yes | UMass/WCVB no | UMass undecided or “do not understand” |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1: Public records for the Legislature and governor | 62.2% | 19.8% | 17.4% | 84% | 6% | 11% |
| 2: Public defender union rights | 56.4% | 25.2% | 17.2% | 53% | 19% | 28% |
| 3: All-party primary | 46.8% | 41.4% | 10.4% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| 4: Election Day registration | 59.2% | 32.8% | 6.4% | 67% | 26% | 8% |
| 5: Revenue cap and rebates | 40.0% | 37.6% | 19.8% | 58% | 20% | 21% |
| 6: Nature for All Fund | 48.6% | 38.6% | 11.2% | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| 7: Single-family homes on smaller lots | 41.2% | 40.6% | 16.4% | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| 8: Repeal recreational marijuana sales | 21.4% | 71.4% | 5.8% | 31% | 61% | 8% |
| 9: Keep the 2024 gun law (yes keeps it) | 57.2% | 31.4% | 9.8% | 70% | 21% | 10% |
Suffolk percentages do not add to 100 because a small share of respondents refused to answer. UMass figures are rounded.
The three close questions
- Question 3, the all-party primary. This is the one question where the two polls roughly agree: about 47 to 41 in Suffolk and 49 to 39 in UMass. Suffolk called its result “within the margin of error.” With about 10 percent undecided, the results show “there are strong feelings on this question on both sides,” Suffolk director David Paleologos told the Globe. “It’ll be a question of who has the best-funded closing arguments.” The Globe reported that Question 3 is the most expensive measure on the ballot.
- Question 5, the revenue cap. Suffolk found 40 percent yes, 37.6 percent no and nearly 20 percent undecided. UMass found 58 percent yes. In UMass, 21 percent were undecided or said they did not understand the question.
- Question 7, smaller lots. The widest gap between the polls. Suffolk found it tied, 41.2 to 40.6 percent. UMass found 65 percent support.
Suffolk’s press release said Questions 5 and 7 “show a relatively higher number of undecided voters, suggesting there is limited knowledge about the proposals or confusion about how the questions are worded.”
Question 6, the conservation fund, is a fourth question to watch. It was ahead in both polls, but under 50 percent in Suffolk’s, at 48.6 to 38.6, compared with 70 to 19 in UMass.
Why the polls differ
The two polls were built differently, and the published documents show how:
- Who was asked. Suffolk surveyed likely general election voters using live interviews. UMass’s sample was registered voters: YouGov interviewed 852 and matched them down to 800. In the UMass poll, 89 percent said they intended to vote, WCVB reported.
- When. UMass was in the field from October 5 to 12. Suffolk’s October 14 to 18 window was a week later and closer to Election Day.
- How the question was read. Suffolk read respondents a longer description of each question, including what a yes vote and a no vote would do. UMass gave a one-sentence description of each measure and offered “do not understand ballot question” as a separate answer. Up to 14 percent of UMass respondents chose that answer, on Question 2.
Neither poll is a prediction. Both are snapshots taken before many voters had focused on all nine questions.
What it takes to pass: the 30 percent rule
A simple majority is not always enough. Article 48 of the Massachusetts Constitution sets an extra requirement, and with nine questions on a two-page ballot it could matter this year.
- Questions 1 through 8 are initiative petitions for laws. Under Article 48, such a law passes only “if it shall be approved by voters equal in number to at least thirty per cent of the total number of ballots cast at such state election and also by a majority of the voters voting on such law.”
- Question 9 is a referendum on a law already passed. Under Article 48 as amended, that law is repealed if it is “not approved by a majority of the qualified voters voting thereon,” but “no such law shall be held to be disapproved if the negative vote is less than thirty per cent of the total number of ballots cast at such state election.”
The threshold is measured against everyone who cast a ballot, not just those who voted on the question. A voter who skips a question still counts in the total. Here is a hypothetical. Suppose 100 ballots are cast and only 55 voters mark a question, splitting 28 yes and 27 no. The yes side has a majority of those voting on it, but 28 votes is less than 30 percent of the 100 ballots, so the question fails.
Suffolk asked voters how nine questions affect their plans. In its marginals, 65.2 percent said they were more likely to vote on every question. Another 12.2 percent said they would vote on a few and skip the rest, and 2.8 percent said they would skip all of them. Close questions with many skipped ballots are where the 30 percent rule comes into play.
Voters still like ballot questions
Both polls asked about the process itself. In the Suffolk poll, 66.2 percent said they prefer “having a direct say through ballot questions in what becomes law,” compared with 14.2 percent who said legislators “should fulfill their duty to make laws.” In the UMass poll, 74 percent supported using ballot questions to pass laws or constitutional amendments, with 41 percent strongly supporting and 33 percent somewhat supporting. Seven percent were opposed. Two years ago, in October 2024, the same UMass question found 76 percent support.
The Legislature can still amend or repeal a law voters pass; we explain how that works under Article 48.
The governor’s race and other statewide races
- Governor. Suffolk found Gov. Maura Healey ahead of Republican Mike Minogue, 59 to 36 percent, with independent Andrea James at 2 percent and 3 percent undecided. UMass, counting leaners, found Healey at 57 percent, Minogue at 32 and James at 6.
- Timing. UMass finished interviewing before the arrest of Minogue’s running mate, Shawn Oliver, late on October 17. Suffolk’s interviews ended the next day. Oliver has suspended his campaign but remains on the ballot, and he has pleaded not guilty.
- Senate. Suffolk had U.S. Sen. Ed Markey ahead of Republican John Deaton, 60 to 32 percent.
- Down-ballot. Suffolk found Auditor Diana DiZoglio leading Libertarian Al Ozonoff, 62 to 15. Secretary of State Bill Galvin led Republican Anne Brensley, 67 to 21. Treasurer Deborah Goldberg led Elizabeth Dionne, 58 to 24, and Attorney General Andrea Campbell led Michael Walsh, 54 to 28.
- Voter mood. Suffolk found 58 percent rated the state economy fair or poor and 55 percent said taxes are too high. Only 15 percent said Massachusetts had become a better place to live over the past four years, the Globe reported.
What to watch before November 3
- Early in-person voting runs through October 30. Here are the rules and hours.
- Mail ballot applications must be received by 5:00 p.m. on October 27. Here is how voting by mail works.
- Ballot question committees’ next campaign finance reports, covering spending through October 15, were due October 20. We will update our breakdown of who is paying for each question once they are filed.
Frequently asked questions
Which Massachusetts ballot questions are close in the polls?
In the Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released October 20, 2026, Question 3 (all-party primaries) led 46.8 to 41.4 percent, Question 5 (the revenue cap) led 40.0 to 37.6 percent, and Question 7 (single-family homes on smaller lots) led 41.2 to 40.6 percent, all within or near the 4.4-point margin of error. The UMass Amherst/WCVB poll had all three ahead by at least 10 points.
Is Question 8 going to pass?
Both October polls show it losing. Suffolk found 21.4 percent yes and 71.4 percent no among likely voters. UMass found 31 percent yes and 61 percent no among registered voters. A yes vote would repeal recreational marijuana sales.
What does a yes vote on Question 9 mean?
Question 9 is a referendum on the 2024 gun law. A yes vote keeps the law and a no vote repeals it. Suffolk found 57.2 percent yes and 31.4 percent no. UMass found 70 percent yes and 21 percent no.
Does a ballot question need more than a majority to pass in Massachusetts?
Yes. Under Article 48 of the Massachusetts Constitution, an initiative law must be approved by a majority of those voting on it and by yes votes equal to at least 30 percent of all ballots cast in the election. A law challenged by referendum, like Question 9, is not repealed unless the no votes are a majority and equal at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.
Why do the Suffolk and UMass polls disagree?
They surveyed different groups at different times and asked the questions differently. Suffolk interviewed 500 likely voters October 14 to 18 and read summary language for each question. UMass surveyed 800 registered voters October 5 to 12, used one-sentence descriptions and offered a “do not understand” answer.
Sources: Suffolk University Political Research Center, statewide marginals and press release, October 20, 2026 (500 likely voters, October 14 to 18, margin of error 4.4 points); University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB toplines, October 2026 (800 registered voters, October 5 to 12, margin of error 4.2 points); The Boston Globe, October 20, 2026; WBUR, October 19 and 20, 2026; WCVB, October 19, 2026. Mass. Const. amend. art. 48, The Initiative, V, § 1, and The Referendum, III, § 4, as amended, read at malegislature.gov. General information, not legal advice.