Question 3 Is Trailing in the Newest Poll: Every 2026 Massachusetts Ballot Question Poll, Ranked

Five public polls have tested the nine questions on the Massachusetts ballot since August. On seven of the nine questions, the yes side has led in every poll that asked. On Question 8, the marijuana repeal, the no side has led every time. The exception is Question 3, the all-party primary. In the newest poll, released October 28 by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov, Question 3 trailed for the first time, 41 percent yes to 44 percent no. Questions 5 and 7 have also come within a few points of a tie in at least one poll.

We read the published toplines of all five polls rather than relying on news summaries. Below are the numbers for every question, ranked from the safest to the closest, along with how the polls differ and the constitutional rule that can sink a question even when it gets more yes votes than no votes. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.

The five polls

UMass Amherst/WCVB, August. 800 registered voters, surveyed online by YouGov August 5 to 12, margin of error 4.4 points. It described several questions in its own words as “potential ballot questions,” before the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s official wording was final.
MassINC Polling Group/CommonWealth Beacon, September. 800 likely voters, surveyed online September 14 to 22, with what MassINC calls a credibility interval of plus or minus 4 points. Each question was read with the official “yes” and “no” vote statements.
UMass Amherst/WCVB, October. 800 registered voters, surveyed online by YouGov October 5 to 12, margin of error 4.2 points. Totals combine “definitely” and “probably” answers, and “do not understand” was offered as a separate answer.
Suffolk University/Boston Globe, October. 500 likely voters, live interviews October 14 to 18, margin of error 4.4 points.
UMass Lowell/YouGov, October. 850 likely voters, surveyed online October 7 to 18, adjusted margin of error 4.4 points, released October 28. It asked about Questions 3, 4, 5, 7 and 8 only.

No poll is a prediction. Ballot question polls in particular can move late, because many voters do not focus on the questions until they see the ballot.

Every question, every poll

Figures are yes and no percentages from each poll’s topline. A dash means the poll did not ask about the question. For Question 9, a yes vote keeps the 2024 gun law and a no vote repeals it.

Question	UMass Aug	MassINC Sept	UMass Oct	Suffolk Oct	UMass Lowell Oct
1: Public records for the Legislature and governor	84 / 7	63 / 14	84 / 6	62.2 / 19.8	–
2: Public defender union rights	45 / 24	48 / 25	53 / 19	56.4 / 25.2	–
3: All-party primary	51 / 32	43 / 36	49 / 39	46.8 / 41.4	41 / 44
4: Election Day registration	69 / 22	53 / 33	67 / 26	59.2 / 32.8	57 / 35
5: Revenue cap and rebates	59 / 14	47 / 26	58 / 20	40.0 / 37.6	49 / 38
6: Nature for All Fund	67 / 22	56 / 24	70 / 19	48.6 / 38.6	–
7: Single-family homes on smaller lots	59 / 21	51 / 24	65 / 21	41.2 / 40.6	53 / 31
8: Repeal recreational marijuana sales	33 / 55	27 / 61	31 / 61	21.4 / 71.4	24 / 69
9: Keep the 2024 gun law	70 / 22	70 / 18	70 / 21	57.2 / 31.4	–

The August UMass totals combine “definitely” and “probably” answers, as in October. Suffolk percentages do not add to 100 because some respondents refused to answer.

From safest to closest

We ranked the questions by the narrowest margin each one showed in any of the five polls. That is a simple way to show which questions have been close at least once. It is not a forecast.

Question 8 (the no side): never closer than 22 points. The narrowest no lead was 55 to 33 in UMass’s August poll.
Question 1: never closer than 42 points, with yes at 62 percent or more in every poll.
Question 9: never closer than 26 points (Suffolk, 57.2 to 31.4). Three polls had keeping the law at 70 percent.
Question 2: never closer than 21 points, but it has never reached 60 percent, and as many as 28 percent of UMass respondents were undecided or said they did not understand it.
Question 4: never closer than 20 points (MassINC, 53 to 33).
Question 6: ahead in every poll, but only by 10 points and under 50 percent in Suffolk’s.
Question 5: within 2.4 points in Suffolk’s poll (40.0 to 37.6), with about one in five voters undecided.
Question 7: tied in Suffolk’s poll (41.2 to 40.6), but ahead by 22 points in UMass Lowell’s.
Question 3: behind in the newest poll (41 to 44) and ahead by 5 to 19 points in the other four.

Question 3: the only question that has trailed

Question 3 would end separate party primaries for state offices and replace them with one primary listing every candidate, with the top two advancing to November. Its lead has narrowed since August:

August, UMass: 51 percent yes, 32 percent no.
September, MassINC: 43 yes, 36 no, 20 percent undecided.
October, UMass: 49 yes, 39 no.
October, Suffolk: 46.8 yes, 41.4 no.
October, UMass Lowell: 41 yes, 44 no, 15 percent unsure.

The UMass Lowell result is within its 4.4-point margin of error. The university called it “the closest election measured in the poll” and said the poll “shows the two sides about even.” Men opposed the question 48 to 40 in that poll; women supported it 42 to 39.

The yes campaign’s main committee has raised about $7.9 million, most of it from a few dozen large donors, according to our review of state campaign finance filings. The state’s major parties oppose it. Harvard professor Danielle Allen, who is leading the campaign, told the Boston Globe in a story published October 30, “We’re sending a message that our democracy is broken.”

Even if Question 3 passes, it would not take effect until January 1, 2028, so any primary held before then would still be a party primary.

Questions 5 and 7: one tie each, big leads elsewhere

Question 5 would tie the state’s revenue limit to average wage and salary growth over the prior three years and refund anything collected above the limit. It has led in all five polls, from 59 to 14 in August down to 40.0 to 37.6 in Suffolk’s October poll. UMass Lowell found 49 to 38. Men split 44 yes, 48 no in UMass Lowell’s poll; women backed it 54 to 28. Undecided shares on Question 5 have been among the highest of any question, as high as 25 percent in MassINC’s September poll. Suffolk said Questions 5 and 7 “show a relatively higher number of undecided voters, suggesting there is limited knowledge about the proposals or confusion about how the questions are worded.”

Question 7 would let single-family homes be built on residentially zoned lots of at least 5,000 square feet with 50 feet of frontage and public water and sewer, subject to reasonable local regulation. Suffolk found it tied. The other four polls found it ahead by 22 to 44 points. UMass Lowell found 53 percent support, including 60 percent of 2024 Harris voters and 42 percent of Trump voters. That poll also found 86 percent of likely voters calling housing affordability for young adults a fairly or very large challenge.

Question 8: the marijuana repeal is losing everywhere

No poll has found more than a third of voters supporting Question 8, which would end retail recreational marijuana sales while allowing adults to possess an ounce or less. The no side has ranged from 55 percent in August to 71.4 percent in Suffolk’s poll. UMass Lowell found 24 percent yes and 69 percent no. In that poll, 40 percent of voters ages 18 to 29 said yes, more than any other age group.

The repeal campaign has been funded almost entirely by one Virginia nonprofit, according to campaign finance filings we reviewed. Gov. Maura Healey has said she will vote no.

Question 9: the gun law is holding

Question 9 is a referendum on the 2024 gun law, Chapter 135 of the Acts of 2024. A yes vote keeps it. Three polls found 70 percent yes. Suffolk found 57.2 percent yes and 31.4 percent no. MassINC also asked the question a second way, whether the law “should be kept in place, or should it be repealed,” and got 65 percent keep, 19 percent repeal, 15 percent undecided.

A no vote is the one that matters for the law’s opponents, and the no side faces its own 30 percent hurdle, explained below.

Questions 1, 2, 4 and 6

Question 1, public records. Backed by State Auditor Diana DiZoglio, it would put most records of the Legislature and governor’s office under the public records law. Yes has ranged from 62 to 84 percent. MassINC also found 72 percent support for the 2024 vote letting the auditor audit the Legislature.
Question 2, public defender unions. Ahead in every poll but with the most confusion. In August, 13 percent of UMass respondents said they did not understand it.
Question 4, Election Day registration. Ahead by 20 to 47 points. UMass Lowell found voters ages 18 to 29 backing it 64 to 24.
Question 6, the Nature for All Fund. Ahead by 10 to 51 points. The Suffolk result, 48.6 to 38.6, is the only one under 50 percent.

Why the polls disagree

Likely voters versus registered voters. MassINC, Suffolk and UMass Lowell surveyed likely voters. Both UMass Amherst polls surveyed registered voters, a broader group that includes people who will not vote.
Phone versus online. Suffolk used live interviews. The others were online.
Wording. Suffolk and MassINC read longer descriptions including what each vote would do. UMass Amherst used one-sentence descriptions. UMass Lowell used the Attorney General’s summary language. Polls with fuller descriptions have generally shown closer margins on Questions 5, 6 and 7.
Timing. The October polls were taken before or during the first days of early voting, which ran from October 17 to 30.

The 30 percent rule

A majority of the people who vote on a question is not always enough. Under Article 48 of the Massachusetts Constitution, an initiative law like Questions 1 through 8 passes only “if it shall be approved by voters equal in number to at least thirty per cent of the total number of ballots cast at such state election and also by a majority of the voters voting on such law.”

For a referendum like Question 9, the rule runs the other way. The law is repealed only if a majority votes no, but “no such law shall be held to be disapproved if the negative vote is less than thirty per cent of the total number of ballots cast at such state election.”

The 30 percent is measured against every ballot cast, including ballots where the voter left the question blank. With nine questions on the ballot, blanks could matter on a close question. In a hypothetical election with 2 million ballots cast, a question would need at least 600,000 yes votes to pass even if it won a majority of those who voted on it.

What to watch Tuesday

Polls are open until 8 p.m. Under G.L. c. 54, § 64, polls at a state election must open no later than 7 a.m. and “shall not be closed before eight o’clock in the evening.”
Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive by 5 p.m. Friday, November 6. How mail voting works.
On a close question, mail ballots arriving after Tuesday could decide the result. A statewide recount on a question is available only if the margin is one half of one percent or less.

Frequently asked questions

Is Question 3 going to pass in Massachusetts?

It is the closest question in the polls. Four of five public polls had it ahead, by 5 to 19 points, but the newest, UMass Lowell/YouGov’s October 7 to 18 survey of 850 likely voters, had it trailing 41 percent to 44 percent, within the margin of error.

What do the polls say about Question 9?

Every poll that asked has voters keeping the 2024 gun law. MassINC and both UMass Amherst polls found 70 percent yes; Suffolk found 57.2 percent yes and 31.4 percent no. A yes vote keeps the law.

What do the polls say about Question 8?

The marijuana repeal has trailed in every poll, with support between 21 and 33 percent and opposition between 55 and 71 percent.

Which Massachusetts ballot questions are close?

Question 3 (all-party primary), Question 7 (single-family homes on smaller lots) and Question 5 (the revenue cap). Each has been within the margin of error in at least one poll, though Questions 5 and 7 have led in all five.

What is the newest Massachusetts ballot question poll?

The UMass Lowell/YouGov poll released October 28, 2026. It found Question 3 at 41 yes and 44 no, Question 4 at 57 to 35, Question 5 at 49 to 38, Question 7 at 53 to 31 and Question 8 at 24 to 69.

Sources: Toplines read from UMass Amherst/WCVB, August 2026 (800 registered voters, August 5 to 12) and October 2026 (800 registered voters, October 5 to 12); MassINC Polling Group/CommonWealth Beacon, September 2026 (800 likely voters, September 14 to 22); Suffolk University Political Research Center marginals, October 20, 2026 (500 likely voters, October 14 to 18); UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov topline and highlights, October 28 and 30, 2026 (850 likely voters, October 7 to 18). The Boston Globe, October 30, 2026; Boston.com, August 19, 2026. Mass. Const. amend. art. 48 as amended and G.L. c. 54, §§ 64, 93 and 135 read at malegislature.gov; question descriptions from the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s 2026 Information for Voters. General information, not legal advice.